Don't Quit Your Day Job
Dear Mark,
In a past column, you stated that video poker has a return of 99 percent
to the smart player and can be mathematically one of the best bets in the
casino. My question is this. If I combine my passion for the game, a low
house advantage and jackpots that run more than $1,000, is there any possibility
that I could make a living playing video poker? Ted L. Laguna Beach, CA
Assuming, Ted, you were to do all the right things like finding full-pay
(9/6) jacks-or-better machines and play perfect basic strategy, I would
still recommend the following advice. Don't quit your day job! Even though
your expected payback is more than 99 percent, actually 99.544 percent,
you must take into account that those high returns are based on you hitting
the royal flush. And why a royal flush? Because a royal on a full pay (9/6)
jacks-or-better machine accounts for 1.981 percent of your total return.
Also of note, Ted, plan on playing video poker an average of 60 hours, with
rapid play, before hitting a royal flush. Even a straight flush can be expected
only once every six hours, and four-of-a-kind hands occur just once an hour.
Those hands are significant because they represent another five percent
of a player's return.
What this all means to the video poker player, Ted, is that the casino has
a 10 percent advantage while you're waiting for the big payoff. Finally,
Ted, your bankroll. It's going to take you, again on average, a wad of cash
about as large as the royal flush itself to survive long enough to hit it.
Is a Friday paycheck starting to sound good about now?
Dear Mark,
By reading your column and listening to your tapes "Hooked on Winning,"
you've got me trained to look for the best value on 8/5 progressive video
poker machines. What are the key jackpot figures I'm looking for to at least
break even against the house? Susan, L. Okemos, MI
Susan, to be even against the house you need to find a machine with a progressive
jackpot that is larger than 1750 maximum bets ($440 for $.05 machines, $2,200
for the $.25 machines, and $8750 for the $1 slots). Want a mathematical
two percent edge? Look for jackpots of $625 on your nickel, $3,125 on the
quarter, and $12,500 on the dollar machines. Tough to find, but do they
exist. Good luck.
(When Susan was referring to 8/5, and I, 9/6 in the Q&A above, we meant
the payoff for a full house and a flush with one coin inserted.)
Dear Mark,
How would you go about identifying a good-paying "Deuces Wild"
video poker machine versus a bad one? Angela D. Oakland, CA
The key to evaluating the potential return on a "Deuces Wild"
machine, Angela, is the payoff on four-of-a-kinds. If your local casino
has little competition, that hand is paid 20 for 5, rather than 25 for 5.
Since four-of-a-kinds occur frequently, this lower payoff drops the percentage
return by well over six percent. Some machines, though, will give you a
little extra by paying more for the full house. But overall, if you're playing
on a machine which pays just 20 for a four-of-a-kind, you're playing less
than a full pay version of Deuces Wild.
Before I Shuffle:
Before you try strong-arming a casino to get your fair share of comps, know
the difference between a hard comp and a soft comp. One is much easier to
get from the casino than the other. Hard comps are reimbursements for airline
tickets, golf, concerts, off-site casino shows or anything else that would
cost the casino real out-of-pocket dollars. Soft comps are cocktails, restaurant
expenses and shows that the casinos produce themselves. Whales (high limit
players) can get anything their heart desires, but if you're a low-limit
player, go for a soft comp because casinos technically purchase them wholesale
and bill them to a comp account retail.
Got a question about gambling? Write to: Deal Me In, 774 Mays Blvd.
Suite 10, Incline Village, NV 89451 or e-mail:winners@winner.com
· To order Mark Pilarski's "Hooked on Winning" audio cassettes--laminated
win cards package ($12.95 plus $2. S&H) call (800) WINNERS.
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